Forget about export-led growth. The global economy has changed everything. Leaders of countries locked in the economic doldrums need to understand that they never experienced "miracles," nor can they count on one to resolve their problems. Quite simply, they must undertake radical restructuring of their domestic sectors. And the sooner the better if they wish to stabilize their economies as a prelude to recovery.
What will be the clearest sign of recovery? Do not look at export data. The best early sign is when imports begin to rise, indicating a strengthening of domestic spending.
Contrary to the conventional wisdom of previous decades, the new slogan should be "import to grow!" There has been an illusion that the advantages of trading derived from exporting. This view should have gone out of fashion with mercantilism. Instead, trade is advantageous in allowing producers and consumers to buy from the least-cost provider, thus enhancing efficiency as a basis for growth.