The situation in the Diet looks calm for now. The debate on the fiscal 1999 government budget, the most important item before the Diet, is proceeding smoothly. The budget bill has already cleared the Lower House and is expected to pass the Upper House around March 20, well before the start of the new fiscal year.
But clouds are gathering on the horizon. April's Tokyo gubernatorial election, the highlight of the coming local elections, is likely to be a free-for-all with potentially negative ramifications for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Former U.N. Undersecretary Yasushi Akashi, the LDP candidate chosen after a bruising partisan battle, faces a bumpy road ahead. An LDP defeat in the Tokyo election could shake up the party leadership and even the administration of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.
The Tokyo poll, however, is a tempest in a teapot compared with the much larger issues that are set to jolt Japanese politics over the long haul. First, political parties are moving to set up a Diet panel to review the Japanese Constitution. Second, moves are afoot to retool the election system for the Lower House (single-seat districts coupled with proportional representation). And third, a suprapartisan group is looking for ways to rein in the runaway budget deficit. This group, which calls itself the Forum Concerned about Fiscal Deficits, held its inaugural meeting in late February.