Will 1999 bring the second North Korean nuclear crisis in five years, perhaps leading to a military confrontation similar to the recent U.S. attack on Iraq, or can such a confrontation be avoided? Although heightened tensions may be inevitable in the coming months, the ability of policymakers in Washington, Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing to develop a coordinated response to these threats will determine the success or failure of diplomacy with Pyongyang.
The consensus underlying the Geneva agreement has been threatened in recent months by the discovery of a construction site in North Korea that could potentially be used for nuclear purposes and North Korea's three-stage rocket launch has multiplied doubts about the viability of the U.S.-DPRK Geneva Agreed Framework in Washington and Tokyo. These doubts have severely damaged the political viability of the agreement with North Korea, while underscoring the importance of ensuring that North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities do not expand.
The last crisis in 1994 was resolved through negotiation of the Agreed Framework and the creation of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization. Pledges of diplomatic and financial support from Seoul and Tokyo were essential prerequisites for Washington to successfully conclude the agreement with Pyongyang. It was essential that the strategic objectives of South Korea and Japan be satisfied before they would promise the political and financial support for KEDO and the light-water reactor project that were necessary to sustain the deal.