Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s surprise announcement Wednesday to not seek reelection as Liberal Democratic Party president next month raises the question of who might succeed him. The winner of the LDP presidential race will not only lead the party, but also the nation as prime minister.
Here's a look at some of the likely candidates.
Toshimitsu Motegi
LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, has long indicated that he wants to run for president. Traditionally, however, the secretary-general — the party’s de facto No. 2 and the one in charge of the party's purse — is expected to support the sitting president in an election.
Motegi, a Harvard graduate and former trade minister and foreign minister, has recently played up his diplomatic experience, traveling to Southeast Asia earlier this month. He has also spoken about a possible return of Donald Trump as U.S. president, saying that it was important to aim for a “win-win” situation with him. Trump called Motegi a “tough” negotiator when Motegi served as the Japanese representative for a U.S.-Japan trade agreement that went into force in January 2020.
However, Motegi’s main disadvantage is a low public profile that puts him down the list of candidates in media polls on who should be the next LDP president. Motegi’s political faction was also dissolved earlier this year in the wake of a political funds scandal that rocked the factional system and the party, which could make it harder for him to garner enough votes to win the nomination at a time when the party is likely to want a more popular figure to lead it.
Shigeru Ishiba
Former LDP Secretary-General and Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has long been a critic of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his successors, has been a top choice to replace Kishida in a number of media polls. He said Wednesday that he would run if he received the required 20 signatures of support from LDP lawmakers
But while the public seems to like the veteran lawmaker, Ishiba, 67, has never been able to rally enough votes among his fellow party members in parliament to win the presidency. If he runs again, it would be his fifth bid, following failed efforts in 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020.
Ishiba has reached out to a number of key figures, including former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, as well as digital minister Taro Kono and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, in an effort to build support for a presidential nomination that could run against those candidates who were more supportive of Kishida.
However, the fact that Koizumi — also a popular choice among the public who is close to Suga — and Kono — still a member of the faction of powerful LDP Vice President Taro Aso, who does not get along with Ishiba — are also potential candidates makes it more difficult to rally their support for an Ishiba bid.
Taro Kono
Taro Kono, 61, is a former foreign and defense minister and also, along with Ishiba, a popular choice in media polls to become the next prime minister. In the September 2021 presidential election, he lost to Kishida in the second decisive round of voting. Under party rules, each LDP parliament member gets one vote, but each of the 47 prefectural chapters also gets only one vote, regardless of how many LDP parliamentarians there are in that prefecture.
So while Kishida won 257 of the 427 LDP parliament member votes, Kono won 39 of the 47 LDP prefectural chapter votes, suggesting that he is popular to a degree among rank-and-file members outside Japan’s political center of Nagatacho.
But last year, as digital minister, Kono’s popularity dropped. A string of personal information leaks and registration errors related to the My Number national identification system triggered a public backlash and he agreed to voluntarily forgo three months of his salary as a way of taking responsibility.
Kono has met with his faction boss Aso on a couple of occasions recently, including an Aug. 9 dinner. The two have sometimes had strained relations and while neither discussed the details of the meeting, Aso’s support for Kono, should he officially run in the presidential election, could serve as a boost to his chances.
Sanae Takaichi
Sanae Takaichi, 63, a former internal affairs minister who is currently serving as Kishida’s economic security minister, has been critical of her boss' leadership as well. She was particularly close to Abe, who backed her in her 2021 presidential run. Even though she was not a member of any faction, and Abe chose her over supporting one of his own faction members. She was eliminated in the first round of voting, losing to Kono and Kishida. Abe backed Kishida in the decisive second round.
In recent weeks, Takaichi has indicated that she wants to run again in September. However, as she never formally belonged to a faction, it’s unclear how much she can rely on other party members who are, or were, faction members and might still be able to rely on those connections for votes.
Shinjiro Koizumi
Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, is a former environment minister and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. If he runs for the presidency, he would likely be one of the youngest candidates for the office. He, too, is popular in media polls, with a recent Jiji poll showing Ishiba as being the only potential candidate more popular than him.
Koizumi's youth might also benefit a party that seeks to raise its popularity among younger voters, and as an non-faction lawmaker he has been critical of the factional system that resulted in the LDP's political slush funds scandal. He is particularly close to Suga, as the two represent districts in Kanagawa Prefecture.
However, it's unclear if Koizumi, who took over his father’s seat in 2009, has the internal support to mount a serious bid for the party presidency, given the number of veterans he would likely have to compete against.
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