When South Korean voters head to the polls on Wednesday to elect members of the country’s National Assembly, they will also be delivering a judgment on President Yoon Suk-yeol’s first two years in office — one that could have lasting implications for the final three years of his single five-year term.
All of the 300 seats in the National Assembly, the country’s parliament, are being contested in the election, with Yoon’s conservative People Power Party (PPP) aiming to win a majority from the liberal bloc led by the Democratic Party (DP).
Polls are set to open from 6 a.m. and close at 6 p.m., with voters choosing National Assembly members to serve four-year terms. At the polls, 254 of the 300 seats will be settled by direct district elections, while under the country’s partial proportional representation system, voters will also select a political party, deciding the share of the remaining 46 seats.
But, considering Yoon’s relatively weak support rate — currently lingering in the mid-30% range — his PPP will be facing an uphill battle to wrest the majority in the assembly from the progressive bloc amid worsening political polarization in the country.
Instead, observers say the most likely scenario to emerge from the election is something more akin to the status quo, with the two sides forced to continue to seek compromise or face the prospect of gridlock on their top agenda items.
Heading into the election, the PPP appeared to have momentum, with a poll by Gallup Korea released late last month showing 37% of respondents voicing support for Yoon’s party, 29% for the DP, and 12% for the most popular third party, the National Innovation Party, which has ties to the DP.
Analysts say the election is likely to strongly resemble the 2022 presidential race in terms of closeness, when Yoon narrowly defeated his archrival, current DP leader Lee Jae-myung, by a razor-thin margin of just 0.73% — the slimmest in the history of South Korean presidential elections.
Still, there is a chance that voters, unsatisfied with Yoon and the PPP’s performance, might punish him and the party at the ballot box by giving the liberal bloc a 200-seat majority that would let it override presidential vetoes and even push forward measures for impeaching the president.
How Yoon fares in the election will be closely watched in Tokyo and Washington.
The South Korean leader has taken ambitious and politically fraught steps to help rebuild Seoul’s once-tattered bilateral relationship with Japan, while simultaneously strengthening trilateral ties with the two countries’ mutual ally, the United States, amid the growing North Korean nuclear and missile threat.
Yoon has also aligned closely with the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, who has sought to revitalize Washington’s alliances in Asia as a counter to China’s assertive foreign policy.
It’s unclear exactly how the election will impact Seoul's foreign policy direction, but a significant shift is not expected, regardless of who wins. South Korea's “imperial presidency” has outsized power in agenda-setting and policy implementation, observers say, giving the National Assembly little leeway to take on a president’s foreign policy agenda.
“I don't think that the election will have an impact on South Korea's foreign policy,” Ramon Pacheco Pardo, an expert on the two Koreas and a professor at King's College London, said, noting that “Yoon has been able to pursue close ties with the U.S. and much closer ties with Japan” despite the DP’s current strength in the National Assembly.
“Regardless of the outcome of the election, I expect Yoon will be able to continue his current foreign policy without any major impediment from the National Assembly,” he added.
Still, while Seoul’s alliance with Washington remains overwhelmingly popular across South Korea, a victory for the progressive opposition could intensify doubts about the continuity of trilateral cooperation with Japan, which ruled the Korean Peninsula as a colony from 1910 to 1945.
Support for the move among the South Korean public has improved under Yoon’s push, though the issue remains divisive, and Seoul’s ties with Tokyo — as well as the numerous history issues that have dogged the relationship since normalization in 1965 — have traditionally been used as a potent political weapon against conservatives.
Indeed, a Yoon administration bogged down and forced to devote resources to defending its policy pursuits could face difficulties in plowing ahead with the president’s agenda — especially as he grapples with scandals and gaffes that have kept his approval ratings stagnant.
A gaffe by the president where he characterized the price of green onions — used widely in South Korean cooking — as “reasonable” during a visit to a supermarket last month sparked an avalanche of criticism that continues to resonate amid voter concerns over inflation.
Corruption also remains a top issue on many voters’ minds. Recent scandals over the ambassador to Australia, who resigned last month amid controversy over his appointment while facing a graft probe, as well as first lady Kim Keon-hee’s Dior bag scandal, in which she allegedly accepted a 3 million won ($2,250) luxury bag gift, have put Yoon and the PPP on the defensive.
“The opposition is trying to present Yoon as out of touch, indifferent to the voices and concerns of Koreans,” said Joel Atkinson, an expert on Northeast Asian politics and a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.
Atkinson said this could have knock-on effects for Yoon, especially if his party suffers a setback in the election.
“While the main focus is on cost-of-living issues and the role of the first lady, this links to foreign policy, with Yoon’s greater cooperation with Japan and the U.S. and tougher stance on North Korea being presented as antithetical to what Koreans want,” he said. “If Yoon’s party performs poorly, it will generate much greater momentum behind this sense that the future of the country lies in a different direction to the one Yoon is trying to take it in.”
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