Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi has set his sights on visiting China this weekend, in an effort to right foundering ties, as Tokyo presses for the release of a Japanese national detained by Beijing over alleged espionage activities.
If the plan comes to fruition, this would be the first visit to China by a top Japanese diplomat in more than three years after the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic — and Beijing’s harsh response — halted diplomatic activities.
The two-day visit, which reportedly could begin Saturday, will be Hayashi’s first meeting with new Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang since Qin was named top diplomat in December, after serving earlier as his country’s ambassador to the United States. Qin is said to have invited Hayashi to Beijing during phone talks last month.
On Wednesday, Japan’s top government spokesman highlighted Tokyo’s push for the “earliest possible” release of the Japanese national currently detained in China, a male employee of Astellas Pharma in his 50s.
“Although we are not in direct contact with the detainee at this time, we have strongly requested that our Chinese counterparts accede to consular visits since the case was discovered,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said, adding that the government would “continue to do its utmost to protect Japanese nationals.”
The man has been held in Beijing since earlier this month on suspicion of violating China’s strict counterespionage law.
Hayashi is expected to push for the Japanese national’s release during his visit, experts said.
Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, a Tokyo-based East Asia analyst, said that while Hayashi “will no doubt” push for the man’s release, “this has raised a lot of concern in Japan.”
“You have Japanese people finding it risky to travel to China for any reason,” he said. “That is undoubtedly going to affect the business and trade relationship in both countries.”
The latest incident involving a Japanese national’s detainment — the 17th to be held by China since it passed its counterespionage law in 2014 — has been yet another obstacle to stabilizing ties between the two largest economies in Asia, with some Japanese businesses even reconsidering their investments in China.
Discussions surrounding the dispute over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea are also expected to be on the two top diplomats’ agenda.
Chinese government vessels have repeatedly entered into the area around the uninhabited islets, which Beijing also claims and calls the Diaoyu, occasionally prompting tense, hourslong faceoffs with Japan Coast Guard ships.
China’s growing military cooperation with Russia — a major point of concern for Japan — will also likely be on the docket.
In December, Japan singled out the increasing Sino-Russian military coordination, as well as Moscow’s military activities around the country, as a “strong security concern” in its new National Security Strategy.
Hayashi had planned to visit Beijing in late December, but had to postpone after China cited a scheduling conflict.
In early August, Qin’s predecessor, then-Foreign Minister Wang Yi, canceled planned talks with Hayashi at the last minute after a contentious trip to self-ruled Taiwan by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
That visit enraged Beijing, which claims Taiwan as a renegade province, prompting it to conduct massive military exercises around the island — including firing missiles over the island. Some landed inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone near its southwestern islands for the first time.
China, which takes an uncompromising stance on Taiwan, calls it a “core issue.” And although Taiwan and Japan do not have formal relations, Tokyo has been uncharacteristically vociferous in its support for the island in recent years.
But with the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last July, Taipei lost its biggest supporter, said Yasuhiro Matsuda, a professor at Tokyo University’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, prompting a less open approach to supporting the island.
“This is unfortunate as Taiwanese people expect Japan to literally defend them,” he said. “This may not be the reality, but there is this vague expectation from the Taiwanese public, even today, that it will come to their aid if China tries to invade.”
Matsuda also called Hayashi’s visit “well-timed” from an international perspective, as Japan will represent Asia at the Group of Seven summit in May in Hiroshima.
“Hayashi can feel free to visit China (right now) without worrying about both international and domestic criticism of whether Japan is leaning toward (supporting) China,” he said.
Ultimately, despite its growing set of concerns over Beijing’s behavior, Hardy-Chartrand said that Japan must find a way to confront China while also preventing the relationship from going off the rails.
While Washington is able to adopt a more confrontational approach toward Beijing, he said, Japan — which depends on China for its economic vitality — does not have the same luxury.
“Japan cannot decouple from China. They must find a way to have a functional relationship,” Hardy-Chartrand said. “Hayashi’s visit is clearly with the purpose of putting the relationship on firmer ground.”
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