Judging whether Beijing is dialing back on its property crackdown has become essential to investors looking at the industry’s stressed stocks and bonds.
But the Chinese Communist Party’s opaque governance means investors are forced to rely on media reports to learn about easing measures, the impact of which can be ambiguous. Developers themselves aren’t always clear on their plans to raise cash or pay down debt.
That’s prompting money managers to look instead at indicators such as sales data, household loans, bond sales and equity placements for a more detailed picture of developers’ funding stress. While definitive conclusions are difficult, the numbers suggest the industry is a long way from returning to pre-crisis normal.