Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is likely to choose its new leader, and therefore the prime minister, in a runoff vote between vaccine czar Taro Kono and former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, according to a Kyodo News survey conducted through Monday.

Among the four candidates in Wednesday's LDP presidential election, Kono is expected to win the biggest share of the 764 votes up for grabs in the first round but fall short of securing an absolute majority. Kishida will likely come second.

Kishida has locked up around 135 of the 382 votes held by LDP lawmakers, followed by Kono with at least 100, former internal affairs minister Sanae Takaichi with just under 100 and senior party official Seiko Noda with a little more than 20.