Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s bet that a less-stringent state of emergency will limit the economic damage of virus containment runs the risk of compounding the pain if it proves insufficient.

More analysts now see the economy shrinking again for the first time since the summer, as they recalculate projections in light of Suga’s emergency declaration covering Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures.

They warn that the full economic impact will depend on whether the lighter measures are enough to rein in the spread of COVID-19.