In the race to develop a vaccine to end the COVID-19 pandemic, governments, charities and Big Pharma firms are sinking billions of dollars into bets with extraordinarily low odds of success.

They’re fast-tracking the testing and regulatory review of vaccines with no guarantee they will prove effective. They’re building and retooling plants for vaccines with slim chances of being approved. They’re placing orders for vaccines that, in the end, are unlikely to be produced.

It’s the new pandemic paradigm, focused on speed and fraught with risks.