• A woman wearing a protective face mask sits in a park in Hong Kong on Sunday as a preventative measure after the coronavirus outbreak that began in Wuhan, China. The previously unknown virus has caused alarm because of its similarity to SARS, the severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed hundreds across mainland China and Hong Kong from 2002 to 2003. | AFP-JIJI
    A woman wearing a protective face mask sits in a park in Hong Kong on Sunday as a preventative measure after the coronavirus outbreak that began in Wuhan, China. The previously unknown virus has caused alarm because of its similarity to SARS, the severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed hundreds across mainland China and Hong Kong from 2002 to 2003. | AFP-JIJI
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MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – The new coronavirus may have infected at least 1 in 20 people in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the global outbreak, by the time it peaks in coming weeks, according to scientists modeling its spread.

The typically bustling megacity, where the so-called 2019-nCoV virus emerged late last year, has been in lockdown since Jan. 23, restricting the movement of 11 million people. Trends in reported cases in Wuhan so far broadly support the mathematical modeling the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is using to predict the epidemic’s transmission dynamics.

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