Global warming is on course to exceed the most stringent goal set in the Paris agreement by around 2040, threatening economic growth, according to a draft report that is the U.N.'s starkest warning yet of the risks of climate change.

Governments can still cap temperatures below the strict 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) ceiling agreed on in 2015 only with "rapid and far-reaching" transitions in the world economy, according to the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The final government draft, dated June 4, is due for publication in October in South Korea after revisions and approval by governments.