The number of workers in Japan will fall by 7.9 million, or 12.4 percent, to 55.61 million from 2014 to 2030 if the graying country fails to attain economic growth and bring more women and the elderly into the workforce, a government estimate has shown.
The estimate said that all 47 prefectures will face a workforce decline due to a dwindling birthrate and an aging population.
It also said nonurban areas, which are rapidly aging, tend to face larger declines. The predicted decline exceeded 20 percent in eight such prefectures, including Akita, Aomori and Kochi, but was less than 10 percent in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi and two other prefectures.
Japan's total population is expected to decrease by about 10 million in 2030 from the current level. The working population is important, as its sharp decline could lead industries to slump and markets at home to shrink.
By industry, the number of people in manufacturing will drop to 8.74 million in 2030 from 10.04 million in 2014, according to the estimate released Tuesday. Those in wholesale and retail sales will slip to 8.47 million from 11 million. The number of people working in medical and welfare businesses is estimated to rise to 9.1 million from 7.47 million as society ages.
The estimate was presented by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare during a meeting of a panel to study employment policies. The panel proposed there is a need to reform the working culture to attract women and the elderly, such as by capping long working hours.
Under a scenario based on a brighter outlook, in which real economic growth of 2 percent is achieved annually and more people enter the workforce, the number of employed people will decrease by only 1.82 million by 2030, the estimate showed.