Carlos Ghosn's talks to take control of OAO AvtoVAZ may be the Renault-Nissan alliance's final opportunity to grab the leading position in one of the four main growth markets.
"It's their last-chance saloon for getting into emerging markets in a meaningful fashion," said Erich Hauser, an analyst with Credit Suisse in London. "If they get Russia right, they'll be starting from a position of strength."
Ghosn, who heads both Renault and Nissan Motor, needs Russia because mature markets are stagnating and the three biggest emerging markets already have dominant overseas carmakers. Volkswagen is the biggest in China, Fiat is largest in Brazil and Suzuki Motor Corp. leads in India.
The CEO estimates Russian auto sales will reach 4 million by 2015 and he aims for 40 percent of those deliveries by taking over AvtoVAZ and expanding production by 700,000 vehicles. Nine-month sales gained 18 percent to 1.32 million.