As the Summer Olympic Games in Athens approach, the media have begun to speculate on Japan's medal chances. Such speculation tends to become more desperate with each passing Olympics because the number of medals Japan brings home has steadily dropped since 1964 while the size of the media itself has grown exponentially.
Consequently, there is greater focus on the handful of athletes who are likely to bring home gold. Right now, it seems as if the only two people who are expected to produce in Athens are swimmer Kosuke Kitajima and marathon runner Naoko Takahashi.
Because Kitajima will participate in several swimming events, odds are he will likely win something, but Takahashi's prospects are slimmer. People believe she has a good shot at a medal simply because she's already won one, namely the gold at Sydney. But the women's marathon is a one-shot deal, and the competition is legion. More significantly, the variables are much greater than they are in other events. The chances of coming in first, second, or third depend on more than just a runner's endurance and speed.