Stock markets worldwide are likely to fall deeper into confusion as the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. and U.S.-led military action against targets in Afghanistan increase economic uncertainties.
There is no denying that the U.S. may experience drastic economic adjustments in a turnaround from its 1990s prosperity.
The U.S. economy is indeed about to change greatly from what it was in the '90s. U.S. stocks will remain sluggish in the long run. Although they may rally temporarily on huge fiscal spending and monetary easing, this will not be sustained -- especially compared with the rising streak of more than 20 years that began in the late '70s.
The situation now may be like the end of the golden days of the 1960s when the U.S. entered the Vietnam War.
It may thus be fair to expect Japanese stocks will move inversely from U.S. stocks and enter a long-term rise. In those days in Japan, the Nikkei average hovered over 1,000 in thin trading amid concern over aggravated economic activity in reaction to the rapid postwar recovery.
In contrast with the U.S. hitting a peak then, Japanese stocks bottomed out and began a rising streak of more than 20 years through to 1989.
The doctrines necessary for Japan's renewed growth that are needed to realize a stock recovery are sure to come forward sooner or later.