Warning lights are flashing for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Approval ratings for his Cabinet have reached dangerously low levels, prompting speculation about his future as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the government. At this time, however, Kishida is likely to remain in power until September of next year, when the next election for LDP president will be held. Without a reversal in fortune, that ballot will likely end his tenure. There is little reason to expect a change in trajectory.

Recent polls worry the LDP. A Jiji Press survey released earlier this month put the Kishida Cabinet's approval at 21.3%, the lowest level since his inauguration in 2021. The LDP had even less support, at just 19.1%, the first time that figure fell below 25% in a Jiji poll since the LDP regained power in 2012.