The last two years have upset a lot of strategic certainties. Rather than moving toward nuclear disarmament, the nuclear club has expanded as India and Pakistan exploded nuclear devices. Reportedly North Korea is waiting in the wings, and perhaps Iran, too, will join those elite ranks within a decade.
Pyongyang has already demonstrated its technological prowess by launching a three-stage missile over Japan and has signaled its readiness to fire another. Just as worrisome has been the country's willingness to export its missile technology to anyone willing to pay.
All the while, slowly, inexorably, countries throughout East Asia have been upgrading and modernizing their defense capabilities. While regional governments have traditionally had access to weapons systems, they are now developing their own domestic industries, freeing themselves from reliance on their former arms suppliers.