“Amid the emergence of one geopolitical risk after another, Trump becoming president again is the biggest geopolitical risk of all.”

So said a recent lunch companion of mine, a manager at an automobile manufacturer. Donald Trump recently announced that, if he becomes the American president again, he would apply an automatic 10% tariff on all U.S. imports. The previous Trump administration attempted to impose substantial tariffs on Japanese automobiles — a move that was halted by the Abe administration. My companion was already bracing himself for the possibility that, if re-elected, Trump would recklessly push through similar tariffs.

Within the government, some have voiced concern that Trump might attempt to collect exorbitant “protection fees” from American allies. The previous Trump administration attempted to quintuple the South Korean government’s financial contribution toward maintaining the U.S. military presence in its country and quadruple Japan’s.