China’s aggregate demand has weakened significantly over the past three years.
In addition to the enduring effects of China’s anti-COVID-19 policy, the country has also been weighed down by the decrease in global demand. Exports fell by 14.5% year on year in July, a stark contrast from the robust 17.2% export growth recorded in July 2022. Given these downturn pressures, the government’s decision not to announce a massive stimulus package, as many had anticipated, has left foreign and Chinese observers deeply perplexed.
While China’s leaders are certainly aware of the ongoing economic slowdown, they may be estimating that the risk of a bailout is worse than the risk of inaction. Or perhaps they have more confidence in the domestic economy’s resilience against a global recession and believe that the economy will recover quickly on its own.