China is no longer set to eclipse the U.S. as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.
That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the U.S. — and even then, it will happen by "only a small margin” before "falling back behind.” Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.
"China is down-shifting onto a slower growth path sooner than we expected,” the Bloomberg Economists wrote in a Tuesday research note. "The post-COVID rebound has run out of steam, reflecting a deepening property slump and fading confidence in Beijing’s management of the economy. Weak confidence risks becoming entrenched — resulting in an enduring drag on growth potential.”