One after another, American researchers and experts known as "panda huggers" for their dovish stance on China have become converts to "panda sluggers." As the change in name suggests, they now espouse a far more hawkish view of China.
Professor David Shambaugh of George Washington University is one of the United States' leading China experts — and a newly converted hawk. Shambaugh's March essay in the Wall Street Journal has had enormous reverberations within the foreign policy community. Titled "The Coming Chinese Crack-up," Shambaugh's argument is as follows:
While the world has been captivated by its rise over the past three decades, China is now facing an impending crash. This does not mean, however, that an all-out collapse of China is imminent. On the contrary, Shambaugh predicts that this process will be "protracted, messy and violent." China's power elites have already begun sending their families and assets overseas — to the U.S. and other destinations. This development suggests that Chinese elites are abandoning their expectations of a future in their homeland.