The future of the nation's social security programs will likely be on the minds of many voters when they go to the polls for the Upper House election on Sunday. However, neither Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition or the opposition camp has been able to present voters with a convincing picture of a sustainable social welfare system amid the rapidly aging population and low birthrate. Addressing the problem should be the top priority of the Abe administration if, as most media surveys forecast, he emerges from the election with yet another landslide victory for his ruling bloc.
Ballooning social security costs have come to account for more than half of the government's general policy expenditures. Under the ongoing demographic trend, they are growing by ¥1 trillion each year. In 2025, when the youngest members of the nation's postwar baby boomer generation will be 75, the medical expenses are projected to be 1.4 times and nursing care costs 1.9 times higher than they are today.
The rapid graying of the population — last year people age 65 or older accounted for a record 26.7 percent of the total — means a declining number of working-age people will shoulder the cost of welfare spending for the growing ranks of the elderly. In 1965, there were roughly nine working-age people supporting one retiree. Today, that number has fallen to slightly less than three. In 2050, it is estimated that the number will be down to one.