Iran nuclear deal faces headwinds

Hard-liners put pressure on Obama, Rouhani

AFP-JIJI, The Washington Post

Their nations are estranged by decades of distrust, but Presidents Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani share a common political problem. Hawks and hard-liners in Washington and Tehran are putting the squeeze on them as they grasp for a landmark nuclear deal.

As new international talks on Iran’s nuclear program open in Geneva, deep mutual suspicion leaves American and Iranian negotiators little time or political space to act.

Obama is hoping to rapidly secure a temporary freeze on Iran’s nuclear program to buy time for diplomats to hammer out a comprehensive agreement restricting Iran’s ability to seek atomic weapons, U.S. officials said.

But national security conservatives who view Iran’s diplomatic charm offensive through the same skeptical lens as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want the White House to swear off inducements for Iranian concessions and to threaten tougher sanctions.

In Tehran, clerical and political conservatives, temporarily silenced by Rouhani’s election, disdain talks with the “Great Satan” America.

“It is entirely possible that there are political considerations on either side that will complicate this,” said Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution. “Both sides have to insulate against that, to the extent that it is possible.”

For Obama, a deal to disable Tehran’s nuclear program without using military force would offer a shining foreign policy legacy.

But Democratic and Republican hawks steeped in decades of antipathy toward revolutionary Iran doubt a genuine deal is possible.

A new Senate push for even tougher sanctions than those currently hobbling Iran’s economy prompted intense lobbying from a White House fearful that hard-liners in Tehran could torpedo Rouhani’s diplomatic outreach.

But powerful Democratic Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Robert Menendez and Republican colleague Mark Kirk argue that Iran only came to the table because of sanctions — and urge more tough medicine.

Convincing the Senate to hold off on new measures to further choke Iran’s oil sector is one thing. Selling a divided, dysfunctional Congress on interim and final deals brokered by the U.S. team in Geneva is another.

Although Obama has the power to waive certain sanctions on the Islamic republic, he would need help from lawmakers to offer the full relief that might motivate Iran to do a deal.

But his sway on Capitol Hill is waning amid criticism over his handling of the Syria crisis and a second term malaise.

The likely shape of any final deal will prove politically contentious.

Menendez is on record with a bipartisan group of senators as saying Iran must be barred, among other restrictions, from enriching uranium — in line with Israel’s red lines on a nuclear deal.

But former Obama administration nonproliferation official Robert Einhorn says a “perfect” deal may already be out of reach.

“The problem is that Iran is exceedingly unlikely to cave into demands that it regards as tantamount to surrender,” he said in a speech in Tel Aviv last month widely interpreted as hinting at administration thinking.

“Most observers who follow Iran and its internal dynamics believe that no matter how devastating the sanctions, no matter how persistent we are at the negotiating table and no matter how credible the military option we are able to threaten, Iran will not agree to the maximalist terms that the Israeli government and some Americans advocate.”

If Einhorn is right, Obama will have to convince skeptical lawmakers that a less than ideal agreement — which leaves Iran short of “breakout” capacity to building a nuclear bomb but does not deprive it of the “right” to enrich uranium — is worth supporting.

Rouhani’s limited room for political maneuver was reflected in his diplomatic dance at the United Nations in September, when he dodged a meeting with Obama but spoke to him by phone.

Many Iran watchers in Washington interpret Iran’s desire for quick results in the talks as a sign that Rouhani is on borrowed time after winning election in June on a pledge to ease U.S. sanctions.

They also noted Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comment Sunday that talking would do Iran no harm.

But Khamenei, with ultimate authority over the nuclear program, also warned he was “not optimistic.”

“The reason why the supreme leader came out two days ago in support of the negotiating team was to silence some of those opponents who were talking about a sellout,” said Haleh Esfandiari, director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “So far he has the support of the supreme leader. How long that will last we don’t know.”