The Abe administration appears set on enabling the abdication of Emperor Akihito by enacting one-off special legislation instead of instituting Imperial abdication by amending the Imperial House Law, which sets the rules on Imperial succession. Even before the government's panel of experts tasked with discussing the issue comes up with a formal report, possible dates have already been speculated in media reports for the Emperor to retire to pave way for Crown Prince Naruhito to ascend to the throne, likely sometime in 2018.
But abdication is an issue that will concern not only Emperor Akihito but future generation of the Imperial family as well. The concern cited by the Emperor when he expressed his wish to retire in a televised video message last August — that of becoming unable to perform his duties due to his advanced age and increasing frailty — could come back to haunt his successors. Other issues related to the Imperial family that have been cast aside in the ongoing discussions since the Emperor's message — including the future sustainability of the family under current rules that restrict succession to males in the paternal lineage — will not go away even if the present issue is resolved through legislation applied only to the current emperor.
The Imperial House Law does not provide for abdication, saying that the throne passes to the heir upon the emperor's death. After the Emperor, who turned 83 last month, indicated his wish to step down and much of the public appeared to support his abdication, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration has explored legislative means to address the issue. Abe set up an advisory panel, which held hearing sessions with experts on the Imperial system and constitutional issues last fall and is scheduled to summarize the points of discussion on Monday. Based on the panel's report, political parties with Diet seats will collect the opinions of their members, which will then be put together by the Lower House speaker and vice speaker, and the Upper House president and vice president, to be reported to the government. The Abe administration then plans to submit the relevant legislation to the Diet by late April with the aim of getting it enacted during the current session that ends in June.