We're all playing a guessing game. During the campaign, Donald Trump made many promises. But whether friend or foe, we don't know what he will actually do. The result is a deluge of predictions from politicians, pundits, think tanks, lobbyists, economists and others. Here, for example, is the outlook of economists at Nomura Securities.
Conceding enormous "uncertainty," the economists predict that large tax cuts, costing $3 trillion in lost revenues over the next decade, will be the centerpiece of Trump's economic program. Coupled with the tax cuts would be $500 billion in added spending, mostly for infrastructure and defense. These amounts enlarge budget deficits, already estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to be $8.6 trillion over the decade.
The Republican Congress is expected to repeal the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare"), but the timing and the availability of a replacement are unknown and, possibly, unsettled. Similarly, the economists anticipate "significant regulatory changes" — cutbacks — and more deportations of illegal immigrants. Again, details are unknown and perhaps nonexistent. Trade policy is the same; there have been unconfirmed reports that Trump will slap a temporary 5 percent to 10 percent tariff on all imports.