With the Aso administration's approval rating continuing to plunge, there appears to be a growing likelihood that the No. 1 opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan, will defeat the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the next general election and take the reins of government under the leadership of Ichiro Ozawa.
If such an outcome materializes, how would Japan change? How would the DPJ seek to finance the wide range of economic programs it has pledged to undertake? How would the Ozawa government meet the pressure expected to come from the new U.S. administration of President Barack Obama for Japan to play a more active role in the war in Afghanistan?
On the domestic front, the DPJ's announced economic policy may be summarized as one of "reckless spending." It calls for, among other things, making all expressways free of tolls, giving every child ¥26,000 a month until he or she finishes the nine years of compulsory education, and providing compensation for farmers who have to sell their products below cost. It is estimated that these policies would cost an estimated ¥20.5 trillion in fiscal 2012, but it is not yet clear how the DPJ proposes to secure the necessary financial resources.