The peace agreement in the Ukrainian conflict may be tailor-made to satisfy Russian President Vladimir Putin: It keeps the authorities in Kiev under his thumb while avoiding an escalation of the confrontation that would tip his country's economy deeper into crisis.
Putin and the leaders of France, Germany and Ukraine on Thursday unveiled an agreement in Minsk, Belarus, which foresees a cease-fire on Feb. 15 and other steps including a buffer zone and more powers for parts of the disputed Donbas region. Even if the accord succeeds in ending 10 months of fighting, analysts from Moscow to Berlin say the struggle over Ukraine's strategic direction looks far from over.
"Russia will not leave Ukraine alone as that would run counter to Putin's main goals when he started this crisis," said Masha Lipman, a Moscow-based political analyst and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "This agreement does not get in the way of Russian policy aimed at disrupting Ukraine's development."