For all the West's efforts to punish companies close to Russian President Vladimir Putin with financial sanctions, it's the blameless private companies that will probably suffer the most.
Putin's regime can live with U.S. and European bans on exports of dual-use technology. Although some companies — like the Czech aviation equipment manufacturer PBS — might lose business, there will be a Russian company waiting to take over for just about every Western defense company that won't be able to sell to Russia. Dmitri Rogozin, the deputy prime minister responsible for the military industrial complex, is already promising that Russia will build a helicopter carrier of its own if France fails to supply the second Mistral warship it is under contract to produce.
Russia's oil and gas industry can live with the ban on supplies of U.S. and European oil extraction equipment. Although Russia imports all of the equipment it uses in offshore drilling projects and about 70 percent of its fracking equipment, the worst that can happen is a delay in some projects while Russian oil companies source the necessary kit in Asia or get Russian manufacturers to step in.