The Cabinet Office's Central Disaster Prevention Council said Wednesday that a megaquake of magnitude-9 in the Nankai Trough off the Pacific coasts and its ensuing tsunami could kill up to 323,000 people in 30 prefectures including Tokyo, with about 70 percent of the deaths tsunami-related. Malfunctioning water gates would cause 23,000 more deaths.
The estimated number of victims shot up from the 2003 estimate of some 24,700 deaths. By comparison, some 19,000 people died or went missing in the 3/11 disasters of 2011. The latest estimate represents the worst-case scenario, which assumes that the largest-class earthquake and tsunami would occur in the Nankai Trough, a 900-km subduction zone off the Pacific coasts stretching from Shizuoka Prefecture to Shikoku. There is no need to excessively worry because the probability of such a massive quake in the trough is very low. But as the council said in a news release, it is important for the public "to be afraid (of disasters) in the right way."
It is imperative that the central and local governments work out a strategy to cope with the worst-case scenario and make steady preparations. Doing so will help minimize the damage.