Could 2012 turn conventional wisdom on its head? Here's the conventional wisdom: U.S. President Barack Obama's re-election is vulnerable to the weak economy and high joblessness. Here's what might happen: The economy gradually improves, and although unemployment stays high (exceeding 8 percent), what counts politically is the palpable sense that things are moving in the right direction. This allows Obama to argue, as he already does, that his policies are slowly repairing the economic calamity he inherited from Republicans.
To which they respond: Obama's anti-business rhetoric and policies have impeded recovery; the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare") and new regulations create uncertainties that deter hiring; and Obama hasn't dealt with the explosion of federal debt.
Just which narrative triumphs may well determine the election. If Obama convinces Americans that he's set a course for a strengthening recovery, then he wins. If the Republicans successfully cast his policies as producing prolonged stagnation, they win. Though the debate matters, the economy's actual performance — for better or worse — will decide how many Americans feel. And this will depend on forces and events over which the candidates have little or no control.