If a magnitude 9.0 quake were to occur along the Nankai Trough off central and western Japan, it could be so powerful as to violently rock high-rise buildings in cities as far from the epicenter as Tokyo and Osaka, a new set of estimates showed Saturday.
The National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, projected that tall buildings in Tokyo would sway at a speed 10 times faster than during the 9.0-magnitude Great East Japan Earthquake that struck off Tohoku in 2011. It also forecast the speed of oscillation for high-rises in Osaka could be several dozen times faster.
The institute for the first time simulated ground motion in the event of a magnitude 9.0 Nankai Trough quake, which researchers estimate has a 60 to 70 percent chance of striking within the next 30 years.