Conspiracy or cock-up? That is the question that invariably comes to mind when something goes very badly wrong in business or politics. As it has done in both of these two worlds in Japan lately.

First came the Democratic Party of Japan's miserable defeat in the Upper House election July 11.

On the face of it, it looks as though conspiracy could not have had much to do with this development. Unless perhaps the ever conspiratorial Ichiro Ozawa was up to something to try to punish Prime Minister Naoto Kan for telling him very explicitly to keep his mouth shut in the future. Yet even the Prince of Darkness himself would surely not be so vengeful as to sacrifice his own party's fortunes on the altar of a personal vendetta. Although of course one never knows.