It may be hard to believe, but the nation's current economic expansion has probably lasted about 41 months and will next month match Japan's third-longest postwar boom.
That is what the the Economic Planning Agency predicted Mar. 24 after analyzing the results of the diffusion index, the second-most important economic statistic after gross domestic product. The agency said the diffusion index of coincident economic indicators reflects the present state of the economy and stood at a reading of 90.0 percent for the month, extending its stay above the crucial 50 percent boom-or-bust line to five consecutive months, from September 1996.
An EPA official said the key economic index's movements on a whole suggest the economy remains on a recovery course. However, in January the diffusion index of leading economic indicators declined below the boom-or-bust line for the first time in five months, the EPA said. The indicator, which predicts economic trends about six months ahead, stood at 44.4 percent on a preliminary basis.