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Pyongyang’s rational deterrent

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Here we go again. North Korea launched a ballistic missile of intercontinental range on Sunday (saying it was just putting up a satellite) only weeks after it carried out its fourth nuclear weapons test (which it claimed was a hydrogen bomb).The U.N. Security Council strongly condemned it, and even China, North Korea’s only ally, expressed its “regret” at what the country had done.

There will certainly now be more U.N. sanctions against Kim Jong Un’s isolated regime. But there have already been four rounds of U.N. military and economic sanctions since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, and Pyongyang just ignores them.

Clearly, this is something that the North Korean regime wants so badly that it is willing to endure considerable punishment in order to get it. But why is this very poor country spending vast sums in order to be able to strike its neighbors — and even the United States, for that is what the intercontinental ballistic missiles are about — with nuclear weapons?

Well, here’s a clue. What the North Korean government said after last month’s hydrogen bomb test was this: “The DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] is a genuine peace-loving state which has made every effort to protect peace on the Korean Peninsula and security in the region from the vicious U.S. nuclear war scenario.”

“The U.S. is a gang of cruel robbers that has worked hard to bring even a nuclear disaster to the DPRK. … By succeeding in the H-bomb test … the DPRK proudly joined the advanced ranks of nuclear weapons states … and the Korean people demonstrated the spirit of a dignified nation equipped with the most powerful nuclear deterrent.”

Never mind the rhetoric and abuse; North Korean propagandists always talk like that. Listen to the key words that are almost buried under the surrounding invective. The North’s nuclear weapons program, they say, is meant to “protect … the region from … the U.S. … nuclear war scenario” by creating a “most powerful nuclear deterrent.”

Really? Do they actually fear that the U.S. might use nuclear weapons on them, and that they can only be safe if they have their own hydrogen bombs and ICBMs? Are they doing all this purely as a defensive measure?

Of course they are. However bad-tempered and impulsive they sounded, the Kim family men who have ruled the North in succession for the past 68 years were not crazy. They never started a war, because they knew they would lose it, and the current incumbent is certainly not going to start a nuclear war.

He would have to be crazy to do that. North Korea lacks the resources to build more than a few bombs a year, and it does not have the technologies to ensure that the missiles it may one day have won’t get shot down. It will probably never be able to guarantee that it can strike even South Korea or Japan with nuclear missiles, let alone the U.S.

Everybody in the North Korean hierarchy (along with some millions of other North Koreans) would certainly be dead only hours after the regime launched nuclear weapons at any of those countries. The U.S. has literally thousands of nuclear weapons. It would take only a few dozen quite small ones to virtually exterminate the entire ruling elite, and North Korea would have no way of stopping them.

A few not-very-high-tech nuclear weapons would give Pyongyang no usable ability to launch a nuclear attack against the U.S. or its allies. They would, however, give it a pretty credible nuclear deterrent.

Launching a few nuclear weapons against a major nuclear power is suicidal, but those same few weapons can be a perfectly good deterrent against a nuclear attack by that same power, because they give the weaker party a capacity for “revenge from the grave.” Even a country as powerful as the U.S. will behave very cautiously when faced with the possibility that an opponent might land even one or two nuclear weapons on its territory.

North Korea has lived under the implicit threat of U.S. nuclear weapons for almost seven decades, and the U.S. has never promised not to use its those weapons against it. It’s almost surprising that we haven’t seen North Korean nuclear weapons before now.

North Korea is just doing the same thing that Pakistan did in the 1980s and 1990s out of fear of Indian nuclear weapons, and that Iran was doing in fear of both Pakistani and Israeli nuclear weapons in the last 15 years.

The Security Council is quite right to try to block North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and the successful use of international sanctions to stop Iran offers some hope that it may succeed. But North Korea is not a crazy state plotting a nuclear holocaust at the cost of its own extinction. Its nuclear weapons program is a perfectly rational — although highly undesirable — policy for a small country with a big problem.

Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist.

  • 151E

    Why don’t more people get this?

    • iamhe

      to many antisocial memes flooding America’s awareness..

  • Liars N. Fools

    The North Koreans are very shrewd for a country in a difficult place. They will not be hurt by additional sanctions in any meaningful way, and they get the utility for their narrow interests of having really bad U.S.-China relations. Well played, KJU.

  • Liars N. Fools

    The North Koreans are very shrewd for a country in a difficult place. They will not be hurt by additional sanctions in any meaningful way, and they get the utility for their narrow interests of having really bad U.S.-China relations. Well played, KJU.

  • iamhe

    NK launched a Satelite which it had every right to do… so please stick to the facts rather than the spin.

    • 151E

      This is an opinion piece by a military and foreign policy analyst – not a news report. Yes, the North Koreans launched a satellite, but one would have to be painfully naive to think that there was no other blatant signalling intended.

      • iamhe

        Incase you do not remember, President Clinton arranged a transfer of rocket guidance technology to the Chinese who were having trouble getting payloads into orbit… a special exception was initated by Clinton, and US Guidence technology was given to the Chinese to help them with their satelite launches… and the very same guidence technology also made it into China’s ICBM Nuclear missiles…

        This was no accident, it was known at the time this guidence technology would make China’s Nuclear Missiles highly accurate.

        Yes the same rockets that launch satelites can deliver nuclear warheads..

        NK needs nuclear weapons, not to nuke the US or anyone else, but to deter beligerrent war mongering sociopathic belligerent enemy governments from attacking.

        NK has a right to have defensive weapons, and the best defensive weapons are weapons that deter acts of aggression.

        so now that NK has powerful rockets.. the US can spend even more money on war games, and the building of new weapons systems… PS we already have enough nukes to destroy every government on earth all at the same time…. the hideous epoch is rigged… we must create enemies, to keep the hideous spectre going.. maybe you understand derrivitives? and credit default swaps?…. and that the bill will ultimately be payed for by the American taxpayer…..

      • 151E

        So we three are all in agreement – the author, you, and me – that North Korea wants nukes as a deterrent against possible aggression and that the ‘satellite’ launch was a signal to the US that they have the ability to retaliate if attacked. Did you read the article before commenting?

      • zer0_0zor0

        The deterrent may be rational, but the regime isn’t.

        That’s not to say that the CIA aren’t a bunch of sociopaths, mind you.

  • iamhe

    No nation wants or needs nukes except to deter sociopathic beligerrent enemy governments from attacking.

  • iamhe

    we are going to sanction them for launching a satelite…..?.. that ought to piss them off….

  • Ostap Bender

    ‘The Kim family men …never started a war, because they knew they would lose it, and the current incumbent is certainly not going to start a nuclear war.’

    Sorry North Korea invaded the south on 25 June 1950. Dyer needs to get his facts straight and the Japan Times should fact check before publishing editorials.