Predicting the number of Syrians leaving their homes has one rule of thumb: Just keep raising the totals. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees does this periodically. Now, after two years of war, the agency estimates that 7 million Syrians, or one-third of the population, are displaced in their own country or refugees in other countries. This movement already represents the largest forced migration since Afghans fled their country following the Soviet invasion in 1979.
The U.N. says that more than 2 million refugees are in neighboring countries. The real numbers are higher, as many Syrians have fled to neighboring countries without registering with the UN. Many refugees remain outside of camps in those countries. Sizable numbers are huddled along the borders of Turkey and Jordan waiting to enter. Worse, no one knows how long the present 2 million will remain refugees.
One needs to pay tribute to the extraordinary and costly effort by U.N. agencies and numerous NGOs to keep Syrians alive and safe under trying conditions. There is room and need for a greater effort by the U.S. and its friends and allies, not to mention countries such as Russia and China that have been quick to preserve Syrian President Bashar Assad but have stayed on the humanitarian sidelines.