Political forecasters are smart about everything except the future. At 7:30 a.m. on the not-so-bright Brexit morning, the polling site Populus had 55 percent of Britons planning to cast their ballots for continued union with Europe — 10 percent more than those predicted to be quitters. YouGov predicted an EU margin of 4 percent. The betting markets had been on a binge for "remain."
Now please estimate how many remain voters, seeing their side so far ahead and weather nasty in places, decided to take a rain check. Then consider the effect of the same Thursday morning polls on "leavers" who felt impelled to get out their umbrellas and vote down the Europeans and the "faceless bureaucrats" and refugee "hordes" of Daily Mail phantasmorgia.
The leavers may have found the polls that morning credible, but they chose not to believe the experts' forecasts of disaster that a remain vote would engender. After all, even the ex-education minister, Brexiteer Michael Gove, had inveighed against giving credence to experts — people who knew a thing or two about currencies and trade. He stands indicted by the tumbling pound. James Moore, former U.S. assistant secretary of commerce for international affairs, assures me this financial turmoil will last for months.