CHANG MAI, Thailand -- There has been a lot of discussion recently about Myanmar's assumption of the presidency of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations next year. It is obvious that most members wish to prevent this anomaly from happening. Let's reflect on some of the more realistic, even cynical, aspects of this imbroglio.
First, many things may develop before 2006. The Myanmar regime may finally present a gentler face or fall apart, or pressure from ASEAN and the international community may oblige the regime to relinquish its chairmanship before a real crisis develops.
Second, although there is obvious discomfort among several more democratically mature ASEAN governments, a bloc of others still cling to the mantra of noninterference in domestic affairs. It is difficult to see unanimity or a consensus emerging on the need to change the presidency-rotation process and thus avoid an approaching embarrassment managed by the Yangon generals.