Destruction, when massive but not total, engenders rebirth, or reinvention, or both. Japan after World War II is a prime example, a model from which Japan in the wake of March's earthquake-tsunami-meltdown is sure to draw inspiration.

What form will this rebirth or reinvention take? "I never think of the future; it comes soon enough," said Einstein. Few in 1945 foresaw Japan's course in the ensuing decades. Few see what lies ahead now.

Two things are certain. One: Japan will change. Its demographic and economic plight was crying out for change long before March 11. Drifting was dangerous then; it's impossible now, though how firmly the government grasps this is not clear.