Gold isn’t behaving quite as you’d expect right now.
U.S. interest rates have risen by half a percentage point so far this year, as measured by the yield on 10-year government debt. That’s typically bad news for precious metal. About two-fifths of gold demand comes from private investors and central banks who regard it as a safe place to park their savings. When interest rates are close to or below zero, as they have been across the world for much of the past two years, no one is very worried that you don’t get a dividend, coupon or interest payment from your investments in coins and bars. When things start to tighten, however, people shift their funds into assets that get a better return.
That doesn’t seem to be happening, however. The yellow metal has mostly traded sideways since the start of the year, and a typical negative correlation between the two assets — where higher Treasury yields beget lower gold prices, and vice versa — has disappeared altogether. Geopolitical tensions around Ukraine might be part of the explanation, but a look at the somnolent levels of volatility in Chicago-traded commodity options suggests traders aren’t paying that much attention to the news at present.