Forecasts for a second year of strong global growth face two main dangers: the health of China’s economy and the prospect of much higher U.S. interest rates.
How the world's commercial poles navigate these risks will determine whether 2021's rapid expansion was a blip or whether the recovery will outlive the pandemic.
China appears determined to quash — rather than live with — COVID-19. An overly muscular economic response, too, may do as much harm as good. Forces unleashed by the disease, such as supply chain snarls that are pushing prices higher and shutdowns of major Chinese cities won't dissipate overnight. Success will hinge on the ability to be nimble.