In cyberwarfare, the toughest question to answer definitively is "Who did it?”

It’s no surprise then that Microsoft Corp. avoided the attribution on everyone else’s lips in its analysis of last week’s cyberattacks on Ukraine. That would be Russia. But several clues suggest they not only came from the Kremlin but will follow a pattern of spilling into other countries in Europe and the U.S., too.

That ratchets up geopolitical tension across the world: Ukraine is currently bracing for potential military action from Moscow; Russian President Vladimir Putin has over 100,000 troops at the border; and Moscow’s security talks with the U.S. and NATO have broken down.