A coalition of states is suing to try to break up Facebook Inc. — the latest event to call the company's future into question. If Microsoft Corp.'s antitrust ordeal is at all analogous — over three years from suit to settlement — it could be a long time before the outcome of all this is known. And it could be years more until we see the ultimate impact on Facebook.
For investors in the social media company's stock, the future might look different from the kind of innovation and industry dominance we've seen over the past decade. But it could still turn out well for shareholders if the company's focus shifts more toward optimizing its operations for near-term profitability with an emphasis on financial engineering.
Despite its enviable growth rate and online advertising duopoly with Alphabet Inc.'s Google, Facebook's stock has a relatively pedestrian valuation. While there's considerable uncertainty about how economic growth will play out next year, Facebook shares are valued at around 24.5 times adjusted earnings estimated for 2021, compared with the S&P 500 as a whole trading at 21 or 22 times 2021 earnings estimates. Facebook's multiple is lower than companies like Walmart Inc. or Coca-Cola Co., perhaps suggesting that a fair amount of regulatory risk is already built into the stock.