Many see the Trump administration's two big foreign policy announcements last Wednesday — the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, and the proposal to sell Patriot missiles to Turkey — as glad tidings for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With American soldiers gone, Turkey can carry out Erdogan's threat of a military offensive against Kurdish rebels in northeastern Syria. And the Patriot deal gives the Turkish leader military technology he has long sought.
On closer examination, however, the announcements represent a mixed blessing. A U.S. troop pullout would leave Turkey isolated in a triangular contest among regional powers for influence in Syria. The two other points of the triangle, Russia and Iran, don't share Erdogan's objectives. And the Patriot offer puts him in the position of having to choose between U.S. and Russian missile systems, knowing that the loser has the ability to hurt Turkey. And while an American withdrawal from Syria might indeed weaken the Kurds, it does not clear the path for a Turkish offensive — or guarantee its success.
Take the business with the Kurds first. U.S. forces have been supporting Syrian rebels, including the so-called YPG, in the fight against Syrian President Bashar Assad. The YPG is connected to a larger Kurdish organization, the PKK, which has been fighting the Turkish military for more than 30 years. Turkey regards the PKK as a terrorist group — as do the U.S. and the European Union — and wants to smash the Kurdish rebels but has been restrained by American pressure, and the presence of U.S. soldiers in YPG/PKK-held areas.