Even as the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race is about to kick off for the Sept. 20 vote, a victory by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe already looks secure. Media reports suggest that Abe, with the backing of most of the party's factional groups, has already cemented support from roughly 80 percent of the LDP's lawmakers in the Diet. The only question at this point would appear to be how overwhelming his victory will be against the sole contender, former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, who lost to Abe in the last party leadership election in 2012.
Having a hand in the decision will be the LDP's Diet members and more than 1 million local members and supporters of the party. But given the LDP's grip on a Diet majority, this race will effectively choose Japan's prime minister for the coming three years.
During the campaign, both Abe and Ishiba should engage in substantial public debates on policy issues that confront the nation going forward. This will be the first LDP leadership race since the party returned to power in 2012 — because Abe was re-elected to his second term in 2015 without a contest as nobody emerged to challenge him. This will be an occasion for the LDP's lawmakers as well as its local members to hand down their judgment on the six years of the Abe administration.