I have long been intrigued with the effort to predict a large, potentially devastating earthquake in the Tokai region of Japan and the legislation that established how scientists and public officials were to respond, should precursory seismic activity reach the point of a warning issued by the prime minister. The Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act of 1978 has been much maligned over the years, as this region between Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures has been the focus of intensive observation and monitoring by scientists, response planning by prefectural and municipal governments, and yet remained stubbornly quiescent for the last 40 years.
The criticism of the Tokai prediction and the legislation that facilitated its being issued has mainly come from scientists who have argued quite forcefully that reliable earthquake predictions are not possible and that a short-term prediction for Tokai is likely to be a failure.
Worse, should a warning be issued, the rather dramatic interventions envisioned by the legislation allowing the prime minister to mobilize the Self-Defense Forces, carry out large-scale evacuations, restrict travel and commerce, and take other actions are, scientists argue, unwarranted given the uncertainties inherent in earthquake prediction. While Tokai has peacefully slumbered, major earthquakes causing massive damage and staggering death tolls have occurred in other regions of the country, including the Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995 and the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.