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Donald Trump’s first year as U.S. president has been, if nothing else, a bounteous source of surprises.

One of the big ones in the circles I frequent is dollar weakness. Between January 2017 and January 2018, the broad effective exchange rate of the dollar fell by 8 percent, wrong-footing many of the pundits. I include myself among the wrong-footed (others can decide whether I qualify as a pundit).

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