Iraqi officials have declared that Islamic State group's caliphate is finished. After months of urban warfare and U.S. air strikes, Iraqi forces say they are on the verge of expelling the militants from their last holdouts in Mosul. In Syria, U.S.-backed rebels are moving quickly through the eastern city of Raqqa, another capital of the self-proclaimed caliphate.
With the imminent fall of the last two urban centers under IS' control in Syria and Iraq, the group has now lost much of its territory. The severe loss of territory in Syria and Iraq means that routes for foreign jihadists to reach the self-declared caliphate have contracted. But the group still has the capability to attract recruits, secure weapons, raise funds through theft and extortion, and dispatch sympathizers to carry out attacks abroad.
As it gets weaker on the ground, IS has less to lose by unleashing attacks outside of Syria and Iraq. In recent months, the jihadist group has quickly claimed responsibility for a spate of attacks on civilians in Europe, especially in Britain and France.