Given his fearsome rhetoric and blunt speaking, it is not surprising that many fear that the new populist president of the Philippines could have a destabilizing impact on the region. For some, Rodrigo Duterte's "Duterte Harry" persona could tip the republic into conflict with China and, through its alliance with the United States, drag the region into a major conflagration. Others see an unpredictable man who could just as easily pander to China's overtures and strike a deal with the communist country to support his economic ambitions at home.
Duterte's complex character and his inexperience and lack of interest in foreign affairs make anticipating his international policy challenging. However, there are some clear signs of what we can expect.
Despite his enigmatic character, Duterte is a leader who, at least in the short term, is very likely to focus on domestic priorities. Rather than taking an approach in which foreign policy has a logic of its own or in which international and domestic considerations are taken together — for example thinking about the South China Sea dispute in terms of both Philippines interests as well as its alliance commitments — he is likely to follow a foreign policy that provides an international environment most conducive to achieving his domestic priorities.