Now that the excitement has abated, it is time for a sober second look at the deal on Iran's nuclear program signed in Geneva on Nov. 24. The agreement is neither a historic breakthrough nor a historic mistake, merely an interim agreement. It is an important and welcome first step but stops well short of the final step. It is welcome because it pauses both Iran's march toward weapons and the West's march to another war.
With neither a regime collapse imminent nor an effective military strike on Iran realistic, the Geneva deal is an acceptable stop-gap measure. It is also possible that in order to focus on China's assertiveness in Asia-Pacific and Russia's return to some influence in the Middle East, Washington needs to bring some sort of closure to the 34-year conflict with Iran.
The perceived threat from Iranian enrichment has been reduced without crossing Tehran's red line on it. The deal neither explicitly accepts nor disavows Iran's right to enrichment. It halts enrichment above 5 percent, neutralizes the stockpile of near 20 percent uranium, and halts progress on Iran's enrichment capacity. As quid pro quo, Iran has been granted around $7 billion worth of sanctions relief (out of a total of $80 to $100 billion) and the promise of no more U.N., EU or U.S. sanctions for six months.